ERA revises rental forecasts

By Helen Wright13 June 2016

The European Rental Association (ERA) has trimmed its expectations for the rental market in 2016 amid lacklustre construction market growth in Europe.

The ERA said it now forecast 1% overall growth in total rental volumes in 2016, compared to its previous forecast of 1.3% growth.

It said total rental turnover in the EU28 and EFTA countries totalled €23.1 billion in 2014, and increased an estimated 1.4% in 2015.

Speaking during the ERA Convention in Stockholm, Sweden, on 8 June, ERA Secretary General Michel Petitjean said that while the outlook had improved for some European countries, it had been downgraded elsewhere.

“In UK, the largest equipment rental market in Europe by volume, the new forecast is for growth of 2.3% in 2016, compared to our previous forecast of 3.7% growth,” Mr Petitjean said.

“The forecast has also been trimmed in Spain, where rental market growth of 2% is now expected in 2016 against the previous forecast of 3.1%, while in Norway the new forecast is for 1.3% growth this year, down from our previous estimate of 2.3%. Denmark has also seen a reduction, with a new forecast of 1.2% rental market growth, compared to the previous forecast of 2.6%.”

However, the ERA did upwardly revise its forecast for Germany – the third largest rental market in Europe. It now expects growth of 3.5% here, compared to its previous estimate of .8%.

And in France – the second largest rental market in Europe by volume – the new forecast is for 3% growth, an increase compared to the previous 2016 growth forecast of 2.4%.

No retractions

Moreover, the ERA does not forecast retractions in any of the markets it analyses. The strongest growth is forecast for Austria, where the rental market is expected to increase 3.9% in 2016 compared to the previous forecast of 2.9%, while 3.2% growth is now forecast for Finland, compared to the previous estimate of 3.6%.

In Belgium, the new forecast is for 2.8% growth this year, compared to the previous forecast of 2.3% growth, while in Italy the forecast has been revised to 3% growth this year, down from 3.4%. In the Netherlands, the ERA now expects 1% rental market growth this year, compared to its previous forecast of 1.8%, while Poland’s expected growth rate has been increased slightly to 1.9% from 1.8%.

Sweden, too, has seen a slight upward revision, with a new rental market revenue growth forecast of 1% in 2016, up from the previous forecast of 0.9%. And in Switzerland, the forecast has changed from 0.3% to 1% expected growth this year.

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